Woo! NFL is back baby! Every year fans get optimistic, only to have their heart broken by season's end. Only one team can take home the ultimate prize, so let's start with week 1.
Note: I will be only picking outright. I will tell you the spread and the over-under, but these picks are based on who I think wins, and not whether they cover the spread or not. Also, I will be putting "key games" in bold. These games I will go more in depth than regular ones. There will be about 5 or 6 per week. All listed times are in Eastern Standard Time.
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
Sunday, September 9th, 1:00 PM
Spread: TEN -1.5 O/U: 45
Let's get this straight, the Titans have a better overall team than the Dolphins, on both sides of the ball. However, it is unknown how Ryan Tannehill will play, whether he will be rusty or not. The Titans also have several key players not starting, including 2016 All-pro tackle Jack Conklin. With the game being played in a humid Miami climate, the game could come down to a few key plays which could benefit the home team. With that being said, the game will be close, but the Titans pull it out in the end.
The Pick:
Titans 19 Dolphins 16
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 9th, 1:00 PM
Spread: PIT -5.0 O/U: 46.5
No Bell? No Problem. Or is it? The Steelers look to start 2nd year running back James Conner, who played well last season, but he does not bring the same versatility as Bell. It will be tough to plan against a rather good run defense in the Browns, as it ranked 8th in the league last season. I expect the Steelers to get enough in the passing game with Antonio Brown and Smith-Schuster to get enough points. Although Tyrod Taylor and co. will keep it interesting, the Steelers will take this one.
The Pick:
Steelers 26 Browns 20
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 9th, 1:00 PM
Spread: IND -3.0 O/U: 46.5
Andrew Luck is a great QB, and he has some great targets to throw to in TY Hilton and Jack Doyle, who have both been pro bowlers. Problem is, the rest of the team is, iffy. Without him, the Colts were terrible at 4-12, with wins coming against the Jimmy G-less 49ers, the Deshaun Watson-less Texans (twice) and the Browns. The Bengals D-Line should get pressure on Andrew Luck against a weak Colts O-Line. Also, the Bengals WRS in John Ross and AJ Green should be able to rack up yards against the Colts defensive backs. Expect a high scoring game, with the Bengals having the edge.
The Pick:
Bengals 31 Colts 27
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, September 9th, 1:00 PM
Spread: MIN -6.0 O/U: 46
Jimmy G is 7-0 as a starter, and his biggest test yet is against the #1 defense last year at their place. , The 49ers run game is a bit shaky, and likely won't be able to hold up against the Vikings. Jimmy G also has to face a pass defense with the likes of All-pro players in Harrison Smith and Xavier Rhodes with a less than average WR corps. I'm more interested to see Kirk Cousins in his debut, and for the Vikings to start 1-0 he must be on point with WRs such as Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen. The 49ers could win this game if EVERYTHING goes right for them, but I don't see it happening.
The Pick:
Vikings 27 49ers 16
Houston Texans @ New England Patriots
Sunday, September 9th, 1:00 PM
Spread: NE -6.5 O/U: 51
The Pick:
Patriots 34 Texans 27
Last year this matchup was one of the most exciting games in the NFL, finishing with a score of 36-33. I expect another offensive showdown between the two teams. The Patriots defense appears to be regressing with the loss of pro bowl CB in Maclom Butler and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Houston should have an explosive offense with Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins returning this season, as with Watson starting, the Texans averaged 33 ppg. However, the Patriots are a very tough team to beat at home, and I expect for Tom Brady to put on an offensive show just as he did in week 3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Sunday, September 9th, 1:00 PM
Spread: NO -9.5 O/U: 49.5
The Pick:
Saints 31 Buccaneers 17
Ryan Fitzpatrick, the starting QB for the Buccaneers, does not inspire much confidence. The Saints are a very well balanced team who had an incredible 7-1 home record last season. Drew Brees plays his best football at home, and I expect the Saints to have their way with a Buccaneers squad who has questions on both sides of the ball.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Giants
Sunday, September 9th, 1:00 PM
Spread: JAX -3.0 O/U: 43.5
The Pick:
Jaguars 20 Giants 14
It is weird to say that a 3-13 team from a year prior has a chance versus a team that was in the AFC Championship from a year prior. This game will come down to the QBs Eli Manning and Blake Bortles, who will need to perform for their teams to win the game. Jacksonville's defense makes this pick easier for me, and I expect their defense to be just as good if not better than last year, but the Giants also have some interesting pieces, but I believe it will take a couple of games to figure out.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, September 9th, 1:00 PM
Spread: BAL -7.0 O/U: 40.5
The Pick:
Ravens 23 Bills 13
Nathan Peterman + Turnover happy defense = Blowout. The Ravens feasted on young QBs last year, QBS including Deshone Kizer, Jacoby Brissett, and Brett Hundley. The Ravens defense should have no problem dominating on the defensive side of the ball against Nathan Peterman, and their offense should be pretty smooth, as they shouldn't face a lot of pressure.
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